Many sellers are asking whether scrap metal prices will go up in 2026 in Australia, particularly for high-demand materials like copper, aluminium, steel, and stainless steel. The scrap market is inherently volatile, with prices shifting based on global commodity trends, industrial production levels, energy costs, and ongoing supply chain disruptions across mining and manufacturing sectors.
At the same time, structural demand drivers such as electrification, renewable energy expansion, AI-driven data infrastructure, and large-scale construction projects are creating upward pressure on certain metals especially copper and aluminium. However, other materials like steel and stainless steel remain more cyclical, often experiencing short-term fluctuations tied to economic activity and global manufacturing output. This mixed outlook makes it difficult for sellers to time the market effectively, increasing the importance of understanding broader pricing trends rather than relying on short-term movements.
2026 Scrap Metal Price Forecast in Australia (Overview)
Scrap metal pricing in Australia for 2026 is expected to show a mixed but generally moderately bullish trend, particularly across non-ferrous metals. The direction of pricing will continue to be shaped by global supply-demand imbalances, energy costs, and industrial consumption driven by infrastructure, electrification, and manufacturing expansion.
General Market Direction
The 2026 outlook varies significantly by metal type, with stronger upside potential in copper-linked materials and more stable performance in bulk industrial metals.
Copper: Strong upside potential driven by global supply constraints and rising infrastructure demand from electrification, grid expansion, and data centre development. Ongoing supply deficits may continue to support higher pricing conditions.
Aluminium: Moderate growth expected, but with higher volatility due to sensitivity to energy costs, smelting capacity, and global supply disruptions.
Steel: Likely to remain relatively stable with modest increases tied to construction activity and industrial output, but not expected to experience sharp price surges.
Stainless steel: Prices will continue to fluctuate based on nickel and chromium markets, with moderate but inconsistent movements depending on global alloy demand.
Brass: Expected to remain stable overall, with pricing largely tracking copper movements due to its high copper content.
Key Factors Driving Scrap Metal Prices in 2026
Scrap metal pricing in Australia during 2026 is expected to be shaped by a combination of global industrial demand, supply-side constraints, energy economics, currency movements, and domestic construction activity. These factors interact to determine both short-term volatility and longer-term price direction across copper, aluminium, steel, and stainless steel markets.
1. Global Industrial Demand
Major structural industries are significantly increasing demand for key metals.
- Expansion of AI infrastructure and data centres is driving higher copper usage
- Electric vehicle production continues to increase demand for copper and aluminium
- Renewable energy projects (solar, wind, grid upgrades) require large metal inputs
These sectors are collectively strengthening long-term demand, particularly for non-ferrous metals.
2. Supply Constraints and Mining Output
Global mining limitations are tightening raw material supply.
- Ongoing disruptions in major copper-producing regions such as Chile, Congo, and Indonesia
- Slow development of new mining projects due to environmental and regulatory constraints
- Increased reliance on recycled scrap metal as a secondary supply source
This shift supports stronger demand for scrap material within recycling markets.
3. Energy and Production Costs
Energy remains a critical driver of scrap metal economics.
- Steel and aluminium production are highly energy-intensive processes
- Rising electricity and fuel costs increase primary production expenses
- Growth in electric arc furnace usage increases reliance on scrap feedstock
Higher production costs typically support stronger scrap metal pricing.
4. Exchange Rate & Global Trade
Currency and trade flows significantly influence Australian scrap pricing.
- AUD/USD fluctuations directly affect export competitiveness and local pricing benchmarks
- Strong demand from Asian markets, particularly China, remains a key price driver
- Export parity pricing influences domestic scrap yard offers
5. Domestic Construction Activity
Australia’s internal demand cycle also plays a major role.
- Infrastructure investment supports steady steel and copper demand
- Housing and commercial construction cycles affect material consumption
- Demolition activity increases scrap supply availability in the market
Scrap Metal Price Forecast by Material (Australia 2026)
Scrap metal performance in Australia during 2026 will vary significantly by material type. Each metal follows different industrial demand cycles, supply constraints, and commodity-linked pricing structures. Non-ferrous metals are expected to outperform ferrous categories, with copper remaining the dominant value driver.
Copper Scrap Outlook
Copper is expected to remain the strongest-performing scrap metal in Australia in 2026.
Driven by global supply deficits and limited mining expansion
High demand from electrification, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades
Increased price volatility but sustained upward pressure over the medium term
Copper continues to be the most profitable scrap category, especially for clean wire and high-grade materials.
Aluminium Scrap Outlook
Aluminium is expected to experience moderate price growth throughout 2026.
Strong demand from electric vehicles, transport manufacturing, and packaging industries
Recycling demand supported by sustainability targets
Highly sensitive to global energy costs due to energy-intensive production processes
Overall trend: gradual growth with periodic volatility.
Steel Scrap Outlook
Steel is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026.
Supported by ongoing infrastructure and construction activity in Australia
Oversupply in global markets limits strong price increases
High-volume, low-margin commodity compared to non-ferrous metals
Steel will remain the lowest-value major scrap category by weight.
Stainless Steel Outlook
Stainless steel pricing will continue to be driven by alloy market cycles.
Closely linked to nickel price fluctuations
Occasional short-term spikes depending on industrial demand
Clear pricing separation between 304 and 316 grades will persist
Overall outlook: range-bound with moderate volatility.
Brass Scrap Outlook
Brass is expected to track copper trends closely in 2026.
Strong correlation with copper price movements due to high copper content
Steady demand from plumbing, construction, and engineering sectors
Likely to follow a mild upward trajectory rather than sharp growth
Will Scrap Metal Prices Increase in 2026?
Scrap metal prices in Australia during 2026 are expected to increase, but not uniformly across all materials. The market will remain highly segmented, with non-ferrous metals showing stronger growth potential compared to bulk ferrous scrap.
Short Answer
Overall direction: moderately bullish, but uneven across metals.
- Copper and aluminium: Likely to see gradual upward movement driven by industrial demand, electrification, and supply constraints.
- Steel: Expected to remain largely stable, with only minor increases tied to construction and infrastructure cycles.
- Stainless steel: Anticipated to remain range-bound, with short-term volatility influenced by nickel and chromium price swings.
- Brass: Likely to experience mild price growth, closely tracking copper market movements due to its alloy composition.
FAQs
1. Will scrap metal prices go up in 2026 in Australia?
Scrap metal prices in Australia are expected to show a moderate increase in 2026, particularly for copper and aluminium. These metals are supported by strong industrial demand and ongoing global supply constraints. In contrast, steel prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations linked to construction activity and export demand.
2. Which scrap metal will increase the most in 2026?
Copper is expected to see the strongest price growth in 2026. Its demand is being driven by infrastructure development, electric vehicle production, renewable energy expansion, and data centre growth. At the same time, limited global mining output is likely to tighten supply, supporting higher prices.
3. Is 2026 a good year to sell scrap metal?
Yes, 2026 is expected to be a relatively favourable year for selling scrap metal, particularly non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminium, and brass. While prices may not rise uniformly, overall market conditions are expected to remain supportive for sellers who properly sort and time their sales.
4. Why do scrap metal prices fluctuate so much?
Scrap metal prices fluctuate due to global commodity markets, industrial demand cycles, energy costs, and currency exchange rate movements. Since metals are globally traded commodities, even small shifts in supply or demand can lead to noticeable price changes across Australian scrap yards.
5. Should I hold scrap metal for better prices in 2026?
Holding scrap metal can sometimes improve returns, but it depends on scale and storage capacity. Large industrial sellers may benefit from monitoring copper and aluminium price cycles, while smaller sellers often gain more by selling regularly rather than waiting, due to storage costs and ongoing market volatility.
Conclusion
The scrap metal price outlook for 2026 in Australia points to a mixed but generally stable-to-positive market, with clear differences between material types. Copper is expected to lead potential gains due to structural supply constraints and strong demand from electrification and infrastructure growth, while aluminium is likely to see moderate improvement supported by industrial and transport demand.
In contrast, steel is expected to remain relatively stable with only limited upside, reflecting ongoing oversupply and cyclical construction demand. Stainless steel will continue to fluctuate within a range driven by nickel and chromium cycles, and brass is expected to follow copper trends with mild upward movement.