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Steelmaking is genuinely shifting toward a method that runs on scrap as its main input, not a side ingredient. That shift is happening now, with real capacity under construction, not a distant projection, and it is one of the clearest structural reasons scrap demand keeps growing rather than tracking any single year's conditions.
Electric arc furnaces accounted for roughly 30% of global crude steel output in 2025, and that share is projected to rise to somewhere between 38% and 40% by 2035. That is not a marginal shift, it represents a meaningful share of global steelmaking moving from a method that primarily consumes iron ore to one that primarily consumes scrap.
The reasons behind it are structural, not a passing trend. An EAF is faster and cheaper to build than a blast furnace, produces meaningfully lower emissions per tonne of steel, and policy is actively pushing in the same direction: the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, US incentives for lower-carbon steel production, and China's own steel capacity-replacement policies all favour EAF capacity over traditional blast furnace expansion.
This is not a 2035 story waiting to start, it is a 2025-2027 story already underway:
United States
Multi-billion dollar greenfield EAF facilities scheduled for commissioning through 2027.
India
Expansions at Vijayanagar and Dolvi, part of over 12 million tonnes per annum of new EAF capacity added in India between 2024 and 2026.
India
Phase-two ramp-up at Kalinganagar, alongside multiple greenfield investments from mid-tier Indian producers.
India shows the pattern most clearly. Its EAF share of steel output is on a trajectory from roughly 15% toward 50% by 2030, well ahead of the global average, driven by both rapidly growing steel demand and a genuine, documented shortfall between domestic scrap generation and what the country actually needs. That gap is exactly why export corridors into India already carry real, structural demand, not speculative interest, see our guide to exporting scrap into India for how that trade flow actually works.
Scrap is a globally traded commodity, which means structural demand growth in India, the US, and elsewhere pulls on the same international buyer pool an Australian seller can actually reach, not a separate, disconnected market. It does not mean prices only move in one direction, commodity markets never work that simply, but it is a genuine, structural reason demand for scrap specifically, not steel generally, keeps growing rather than being a temporary blip tied to one year's conditions.
Ferrous grades benefit most directly, since that is what feeds an EAF, but the effect is not limited to steel scrap. EAF facilities are large industrial builds that also generate demand for the copper, aluminium, and other non-ferrous materials used in their own construction and ongoing operation, a secondary effect worth knowing about even if it is smaller than the direct ferrous demand.
A steelmaking method that melts scrap metal directly using electricity, instead of the traditional blast furnace method, which makes new steel from iron ore, coal, and limestone. An EAF's main input is scrap, a blast furnace's main input is raw ore.
Because of what each method actually consumes. A blast furnace's primary feedstock is iron ore, scrap plays a small supporting role at most. An EAF's primary feedstock is scrap metal itself. Every tonne of new EAF capacity commissioned is a tonne of steelmaking that now runs on scrap as its main input, not iron ore.
It's happening now. Nucor, Steel Dynamics, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel all have EAF capacity under construction or ramping up through 2026 and 2027, not a projection for the 2030s. The 2035 figures describe where the trend ends up, not when it starts.
India's steel demand is growing quickly, and EAF capacity is faster and cheaper to build than a new blast furnace, which matters when demand is expanding this fast. India's EAF share is on a trajectory from roughly 15% toward 50% by 2030, well ahead of the global average, driven by both new demand and a genuine domestic scrap generation shortfall.
Indirectly but genuinely. Scrap is a globally traded commodity, and structural demand growth in major markets like India, the US, and elsewhere pulls on the same international buyer pool an Australian seller can access. It's part of why export demand for Australian scrap is a real, not theoretical, consideration, see our export corridor guides for the specific trade flows.
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