Poland Scrap Market: EAF Steelmaking & Trade Flows

Analysis of Poland's Ferrous Scrap and Secondary Steel Market: EAF Decarbonization, Trade Deficits, and the Ukrainian Transit Axis

1. Executive Overview and Macroeconomic Landscape

The steel and secondary metal recycling sector in Poland occupies a strategic position within Central and Eastern Europe's industrial framework. Following years of industrial restructuring, the Polish steel market presents a stark structural contrast: despite robust domestic demand for finished steel, local steelmakers are systematically losing domestic market share to foreign imports.

In 2025, Poland’s domestic crude steel production reached approximately 7.17 million metric tonnes, reflecting a slight 0.8% year-over-year growth following a 10.6% recovery in 2024. However, domestic apparent steel consumption hovered around 12.9 million tonnes, creating a deep finished steel trade deficit of 6.5 million tonnes. Finished steel imports reached 11.5 million tonnes against exports of only 5.0 million tonnes, resulting in an import market penetration rate of 89% across finished steel product segments.

The technological structure of Polish steelmaking has shifted toward Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) secondary metallurgy. EAF production accounts for 53% of total domestic crude steel output, providing a structural advantage for industrial decarbonization. This technological shift accelerated following the permanent shutdown of the primary blast furnace and raw material section at ArcelorMittal’s Kraków facility in late 2020, which removed 2.0 million tonnes of blast furnace crude steel capacity from the national footprint. Consequently, total installed national steelmaking capacity contracted from 12.6 million tonnes to 10.6 million tonnes per year.

Because over half of national steel production relies on scrap-fed electric furnaces, domestic EAF operators depend heavily on secondary ferrous scrap availability, quality, and pricing.

2. The Scrap Export Paradox and Material Flow Dynamics

Poland generates approximately 6.5 million tonnes of scrap metal annually across domestic manufacturing, construction demolition, and post-consumer collection networks. However, the domestic market exhibits a structural paradox: despite domestic EAF mills requiring high-purity scrap to expand low-emission steel production, Poland operates as a major net exporter of raw ferrous scrap. Industry experts and trade associations highlight this outbound material flow as a strategic vulnerability, noting that exporting raw scrap forces domestic mills to operate at reduced capacity while importing foreign finished steel.

In 2024, total Polish ferrous scrap exports across all destinations reached a record 2.81 million tonnes (+5.9% YoY). Outbound shipments from Poland to non-EU third countries reached 1.204 million tonnes in 2025. While this marked an 8.6% drop from the 1.32 million tonnes exported to non-EU destinations in 2024, it remained 70% above the 2015–2025 historical export average of 710,000 tonnes.

The geographic distribution of Polish non-EU scrap exports is concentrated among five primary buyer nations that absorb nearly 100% of outbound third-country volume. Turkey stands as the largest single foreign buyer, purchasing 541,960 tonnes in 2025 (+2.4% YoY), after imports surged 2.3 times in 2024 to 529,000 tonnes. India represented the second largest destination, taking 418,600 tonnes in 2025 (-15.7% YoY). Secondary export destinations included Morocco (92,010 tonnes), Pakistan (80,800 tonnes), and the United States, which experienced a 2.2-fold increase to 68,560 tonnes.

3. Import Infrastructure and the Ukrainian Transit Axis

To supply domestic steel plants, Polish steelmakers imported 340,000 tonnes of scrap metal from third countries in 2025, representing a 28.6% increase over 2024 volumes. Non-EU import volumes have remained elevated since 2022 due to a shift in regional trade logistics.

This import stream relies heavily on a single supply source: Ukraine. In 2025, Ukraine supplied 337,400 tonnes of ferrous scrap to Poland (+34.4% YoY), accounting for 99% of total Polish scrap imports from outside the European Union. By comparison, between 2015 and 2021, Poland’s average annual scrap imports from all third countries combined did not exceed 59,000 tonnes. Secondary third-country imports in 2025 included 22,000 tonnes from Kyrgyzstan (+130% YoY).

This structural trade flow created significant diplomatic and trade friction. Industry analysts noted that Poland functioned partly as a transit hub within global scrap supply chains. Ukrainian scrap entered Poland under EU preferential trade agreements, after which trading intermediaries re-exported equivalent volumes to third-country markets such as Turkey and India. Ukrainian industry associations argued that these shipments bypassed Ukraine's €180 per tonne statutory export duty without creating domestic processing value.

In response, the Ukrainian government implemented a zero export quota on ferrous scrap effective January 1, 2026, halting scrap exports. The Polish government and steel industry associations appealed directly to the European Commission, arguing that cutting off Ukrainian scrap disrupted supply chains, increased raw material costs, and threatened the competitiveness of Poland's scrap-based EAF steelmaking sector.

4. Corporate Landscape and Industrial Processing Ecosystem

The commercial structure of Poland’s steel manufacturing and scrap recycling sector is predominantly privately owned (approximately 97% of market entities). It is anchored by large international groups operating integrated scrap collection and EAF melting infrastructure.

Primary Industrial Producers and Scrap Management Arms

• ArcelorMittal Poland S.A.: The largest steel producer in the country, controlling nearly 50% of national production capacity. The group operates manufacturing plants in Dąbrowa Górnicza, Sosnowiec, Świętochłowice, Zdzieszowice, Chorzów, and Kraków. Scrap processing and procurement are managed through its specialized subsidiary, ArcelorMittal Recykling Polska, which operates a nationwide network of yards equipped with hydraulic shears, mobile Fuchs cranes, stationary balers, and oxy-cutting lines.
• Celsa Huta Ostrowiec Sp. z o.o.: A major secondary long-steel manufacturer owned by Spain's Celsa Group. The enterprise operates a dedicated Circularity Division comprising 20 specialized recycling plants across Poland. These facilities deploy heavy transport fleets, industrial shredders, stationary and mobile hydraulic presses, packing units, and non-ferrous separation systems to supply Celsa’s EAF melt shops in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski.
• CMC Poland Sp. z o.o.: Located in Zawiercie and owned by US-based Commercial Metals Company, CMC Poland operates a large scrap-based EAF steelworks producing rebar, wire rod, and merchant bars, backed by an extensive scrap aggregation network.
• Cognor S.A.: A major domestic steel and scrap group operating production facilities in Stalowa Wola and Gliwice. Cognor specializes in scrap melting, producing commercial bar profiles, alloy steels, and specialized armored steel plate.

5. Decarbonization Pathways, Energy Intensity, and Policy Outlook

Poland’s transition toward low-emission "green steel" relies on increasing secondary scrap utilization within EAF melt shops. However, domestic steelmakers face structural cost barriers.

The primary barrier facing Polish steelmakers is industrial energy pricing. Manufacturing in Poland exhibits a 37% higher energy intensity than German industry, reflecting a slower pace of historic fleet modernization. Heavy industry accounts for 71% of energy delivered to Polish manufacturing, with steel production contributing 2.5% of total national greenhouse gas emissions and 15% of all industrial emissions. High domestic electricity prices, combined with rising carbon allowance costs under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), compress operating margins for scrap-melting EAF plants.

To protect domestic producers from carbon leakage and foreign dumping, the Polish industry relies on the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). CBAM introduces carbon-intensity import tariffs on steel originating from non-EU jurisdictions that do not impose carbon pricing. However, industry stakeholders argue that trade protection must be paired with raw material retention. Retaining a larger share of the 2.8 to 2.9 million tonnes of ferrous scrap currently exported annually would provide a direct pathway for Polish EAF operators to increase low-emission steel production, reduce energy consumption per tonne, and improve domestic market share.

6. Strategic Conclusions

Poland's scrap metal and secondary steel sector stands at a pivotal operational juncture. Supported by a 53% EAF steelmaking share and processing infrastructure operated by ArcelorMittal, Celsa, CMC, and Cognor, the domestic recycling industry possesses significant processing capacity. However, high scrap exports (2.81 million tonnes) alongside a 6.5 million tonne finished steel trade deficit underscore ongoing structural supply chain imbalances.

Moving forward, the stability of Poland's scrap market will depend on managing regional trade disruptions such as Ukraine's scrap export restrictions and implementing domestic scrap retention policies. By retaining secondary raw materials within the national economy and reducing industrial energy overheads, Poland can strengthen its secondary steelmaking sector, lower industrial carbon emissions, and reduce its reliance on foreign finished steel imports.