Strategic Analysis of the Scrap and Recycling Market in Vietnam
Executive Summary and Market Growth Trajectory
The metal recycling and scrap market in Vietnam represents one of the fastest-growing secondary material sectors in Southeast Asia. Valued at USD 1.1 billion in 2025, the Vietnamese metal recycling market is projected to reach USD 2.1 billion by 2034, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.10% over the forecast period. This growth is propelled by rapid domestic industrialization, expanding civil infrastructure, robust public housing outlays, and a structural transition within domestic steelmakers toward low-emission Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production.
Vietnam functions as a major regional net importer of ferrous scrap to feed its expanding domestic steelmaking capacity. In 2025, the country imported 6.25 million tonnes of iron and steel scrap valued at USD 2.03 billion, reflecting a 27.2% year-on-year increase in import volume and a 12.3% increase in total import value. Although average import prices declined 11.7% in 2025 to USD 325.2 per tonne, import volumes continued to accelerate into 2026, reaching 3.8 million tonnes across the first seven months of the year (+7% YoY) as domestic crude steel output surged.
| Market Indicator / Trade Metric | 2025 Baseline Outturn | 2026 YTD / Mid-Year Status | Strategic Context & Market Role | Primary Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Recycling Market Value | USD 1.1 Billion | — | Projected to expand at 7.10% CAGR to USD 2.1 Billion by 2034. | IMARC Group |
| Annual Ferrous Scrap Imports | 6.25 Million Tonnes | 3.8 Million Tonnes (Jan–Jul 2026) | Imports grew 27.2% YoY in volume during 2025. | Vietnam Customs / Argus |
| Ferrous Scrap Import Value | USD 2.03 Billion | — | Total value expanded 12.3% YoY in 2025 despite lower unit prices. | Vietnam Customs |
| Average Scrap Import Price | USD 325.2 / Tonne | USD 331.7 / Tonne (Dec 2025) | Unit price contracted 11.7% in 2025 compared to 2024 levels. | Vietnam Customs |
| Top Ferrous Scrap Origin | Japan (3.3 Million Tonnes) | Japan (1.70 Million Tonnes Jan–Jul) | Japan supplied 52.7% of total import volume and 54.8% of value in 2025. | Vietnam Customs / Argus |
| Crude Steel Production Growth | — | 17.92 Million Tonnes (Jan–Jul 2026) | Domestic crude steel output rose 28% YoY, outstripping global trends. | Vietnam Steel Association |
Import Trade Dynamics and Key Supplier Breakdown
Vietnam's domestic scrap generation remains insufficient to meet the raw material requirements of its steel industry, forcing domestic mills to rely heavily on ocean-borne seaborne trade. Japanese scrap suppliers dominate the market, supplemented by deep-sea bulk cargoes from the United States and short-sea routes across Asia-Pacific.
Key Supplier Nations and Market Shares
- Japan: Japan remains Vietnam's largest scrap supplier by a wide margin. In 2025, Vietnamese mills imported 3.3 million tonnes of Japanese ferrous scrap valued at nearly USD 1.11 billion (averaging USD 338 per tonne), representing 52.7% of total state scrap import volume and 54.8% of total import value. In July 2026 alone, Japan delivered 225,844 tonnes, bringing total deliveries for the first seven months of 2026 to 1.70 million tonnes.
- United States: The US represents the second-largest supplier. Imports from the US expanded by 55.8% in volume in 2025 to reach 788,146 tonnes valued at over USD 250.25 million (12% market share). Demand for US material surged further in mid-2026, with July containerized and bulk deliveries jumping 84% YoY to 144,000 tonnes as mills sought flexible cargo sizes.
- Hong Kong: In 2025, Hong Kong supplied 374,373 tonnes worth USD 123.54 million (6% share), representing a 32.2% volume contraction as regional sellers diverted cargoes toward India and Bangladesh.
- Australia: Australia supplied 369,525 tonnes worth USD 127.9 million in 2025 (5.9% volume share), with shipments continuing to climb in 2026 to reach 87,000 tonnes in July 2026 alone.
- Emerging Supply Diversification: To optimize procurement costs, Vietnamese steel mills have expanded purchases from alternative origins. Imports from Singapore tripled in 2025 to 239,000 tonnes, while monthly deliveries in July 2026 included shipments from New Zealand (31,000 tonnes), Canada (20,000 tonnes), Singapore (20,000 tonnes), and Cambodia (14,000 tonnes).
| Origin Country / Region | 2025 Import Tonnage | 2025 Import Value (USD) | 2025 Volume Market Share (%) | Key Supply Characteristics & Dynamics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 3,300,000 Tonnes | USD 1.11 Billion | 52.7% | Primary source of high-grade short-sea scrap (H2/HS). |
| United States | 788,146 Tonnes | USD 250.25 Million | 12.0% | Deep-sea bulk and containerized HMS 1&2 cargoes. |
| Hong Kong | 374,373 Tonnes | USD 123.54 Million | 6.0% | Short-sea Asian trading; volumes contracted in 2025. |
| Australia | 369,525 Tonnes | USD 127.90 Million | 5.9% | Expanding long-haul bulk supply route. |
| Singapore | 239,000 Tonnes | N/A | ~3.8% | Supply tripled in 2025 as mills sought regional diversification. |
Industrial Demand Drivers: Steel Capacity and Construction Growth
The acceleration in scrap consumption across Vietnam is driven by strong macroeconomic performance and industrial expansion. Following an 8% real GDP expansion in 2025, continued state allocations toward transportation infrastructure, public housing, and industrial park development have kept domestic steel demand high.
Rapid Expansion of EAF Steelmaking Capacity
Between 2024 and 2025, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia added a combined 2.8 million tonnes of new Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) capacity. The transition away from traditional Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) metallurgy is supported by national decarbonization goals, as EAF steel production generates significantly lower direct emissions while consuming large volumes of ferrous scrap.
According to data from the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), domestic crude steel production reached 17.92 million tonnes during the first seven months of 2026, representing a 28% year-on-year increase. This expansion rate significantly outpaced global steel production trends, driving monthly scrap imports to multi-year highs (e.g., 684,000 tonnes in December 2025 and 612,000 tonnes in July 2026).
Regulatory Framework and Environmental Import Compliance
Vietnam maintains strict environmental criteria governing the import of secondary materials to ensure scrap imports serve as valid industrial inputs rather than environmental waste.
Decision No. 13/2023/QD-TTg
The regulatory framework for metal scrap imports is anchored by Decision No. 13/2023/QD-TTg, issued by the Prime Minister. Replacing the older Decision 28/2020, Decision 13 established an updated, official list of scrap materials permitted for import as production raw materials. Key features of this framework include:
- Mandatory Production Input Alignment: Scrap metal imports are restricted exclusively to licensed manufacturing entities (e.g., certified steel mills and secondary foundries) that utilize the material directly as factory inputs.
- Impurity and Quality Thresholds: Shipments must comply with technical regulations regarding non-metallic impurities (typically capped below 5% by total weight) and must be free of radioactive contamination, explosive materials, and hazardous substances.
- Environmental Customs Verification: Customs authorities conduct physical inspections and technical declarations at ports of entry, verifying compliance before granting customs clearance.
Sectoral Breakdown: Ferrous vs. Non-Ferrous and Export Offcuts
While ferrous scrap makes up over 70% of total physical volume in Vietnam, non-ferrous and specialized stainless steel recovery represent an increasingly important market segment.
- Ferrous Metal Segment: Ferrous scrap remains the dominant material stream, supplying raw materials for construction rebar, wire rod, and structural steel beams. Building and construction accounts for the largest share of scrap consumption (over 38%), followed by industrial machinery, shipbuilding, and automotive manufacturing.
- Non-Ferrous and Stainless Steel Recovery: Non-ferrous materials including copper cabling, aluminum extrusions, and stainless steel are projected to grow at a faster rate than ferrous scrap through 2034.
- Domestic Export Offcuts: In addition to large-scale ferrous imports, Vietnam generates niche export streams of high-purity industrial offcuts from its domestic manufacturing base. Verified trade transactions show exports of SUS 304 and SUS 430 stainless steel scrap, SECC iron scrap (tin-coated steel offcuts), and empty industrial iron drums.
Strategic Outlook and Market Insights
Vietnam’s scrap metal and secondary raw materials market is set for sustained growth through 2034.
Primary Market Opportunities
- Rising EAF Raw Material Integration: As domestic steel producers continue installing EAF technology to meet lower emission standards, overall demand for imported and domestically recovered ferrous scrap will remain high.
- Investment in Advanced Sorting Technology: To satisfy the strict impurity rules under Decision 13/2023/QD-TTg, domestic recycling yards and scrap processors are incentivized to invest in automated sorting equipment (e.g., magnetic separators, sensor-based optical sorting).
Systemic Market Risks
- Global Scrap Price Volatility: Sharp changes in international seaborne scrap prices and freight rates directly affect production margins for local steel mills.
- Regulatory Compliance Inspections: Tightening environmental checks at ports can create clearance delays for importers if overseas suppliers fail to meet non-metallic contamination thresholds.
Summary
Supported by a projected 7.10% market CAGR, rising crude steel production (+28%), and steady seaborne trade links with Japan, the US, and Australia, Vietnam will remain a key destination for global scrap metal flows across Asia-Pacific.